Welcome to the Minnesota Multifamily Pulse

If you’re reading this, welcome and thanks for being here.

I’ve thought about starting a newsletter for a while, and like most things worth doing, the timing never felt “perfect.” There was always another call to make, deal to underwrite, or tour to take. But entering 2026, I decided to make it happen.

The goal of this newsletter is to provide useful insight and data looking into the MN multifamily market and elevate discussions with you all.

Feel free to share the subscription link with anyone you think would find value. To be clear, this won’t add you to any other lists.

Liquidity has returned to the Twin Cities multifamily market.

The back half of 2025 carried a level of momentum reminiscent of 2021, and transaction data supports that sentiment. The metro is on pace to remain a $2B+ annual market, with 2025 settling north of $2.5B in total volume, surpassing the prior peak.

What’s notable isn’t just the volume, it’s where that volume is coming from.

A number of larger trades drove the activity, particularly newer construction. Transaction volume for 2016-and-newer assets more than doubled year-over-year, while older-vintage trades remained relatively steady.

This points to growing institutional participation and continued demand for newer, higher-quality assets, a trend expected to carry into 2026

One point of consensus has been that price discovery has mostly happened.

After two years of recalibration, there is now broad agreement on what assets are worth. That doesn’t mean every owner wants to sell at today’s pricing, or that every buyer is ready to transact, but expectations are no longer wildly misaligned.

The bid-ask gap has narrowed meaningfully. Conversations today are practical, grounded, and far more executable than they were a year ago.

Importantly, while some distress has surfaced, it has been far less severe than many predicted, especially relative to other markets and asset classes.

That balance is exactly why deals are trading again.

Notable Recently Closed

Supply has fallen off a cliff. For most of the last five years, the Twin Cities were delivering more than 10,000 market-rate units annually (even more when affordable is included).

That era is over.

Deliveries were roughly cut in half in 2025, and 2026 is expected to see another halving.

The math here is simple: if demand holds (and so far it has), reduced supply should eventually tighten fundamentals.

Concessions are already burning off in several submarkets, and buyers are beginning to underwrite rent growth above the traditional 3% assumption in select locations.
That said, this is not uniform.

Vacancy and concessions remain highly localized. Some submarkets are tight, while others, particularly parts of the southwest suburbs still face meaningful pressure.

And as with all real estate cycles, this adjustment won’t flip overnight. Most expect tightening to become more visible late 2026 into 2027.

The sales market has real momentum to start off 2026 and we should see another strong year of sales velocity with opportunities to transact.

Loan maturities remain an underlying theme, particularly for assets acquired at peak 2021 pricing or newly constructed properties.
Opportunities exist, newer construction at a great basis and well-maintained workforce but success now comes down to buying right and operating well.

A recent conversation stood out to me:
We have a buyer under contract today who hasn’t bought anything in five years. Their comment was simple:

“I finally feel like I’m not overpaying again.”

Current Listings

Team Contacts

Thanks for reading the first edition. I’ll see you next quarter.

— Dylan